Fantasy football inside info: Michael Carter, Gus Edwards, Amon-Ra St. Brown and more from our NFL w
We asked our NFL writers a “burning fantasy question” (we earlier them for their breakout and sleeper picks) about the team they cover. From Gus Edwards’ usage to sorting out backfields in Tampa Bay, Arizona and Buffalo, what follows are the opinions of professionals who follow the NFL teams closer than almost anyone — all here to help you with your draft.
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Good luck and enjoy!
Arizona Cardinals
Q: Can you give us a quick rundown of the backfield situation and how it might shake out this season?
A: I would not trust this group from a fantasy perspective; the Cardinals continue to indicate they’d like Chase Edmonds to be their starter, and while we’ve barely seen James Conner in the preseason, he will be part of their running back by committee approach in the regular season. This very much could be a situation where Edmonds gets more touches but Conner gets more work in the red zone. And with Kyler Murray always a rushing threat himself, this position group screams “red flag” to me for my upcoming drafts. — Lindsay Jones, @bylindsayhjones
Atlanta Falcons
Q: The Falcons quietly brought in D’Onta Foreman three weeks ago. He played under Arthur Smith in Tennessee, scored a TD two weeks ago and had a nice run this past weekend. Is there anything significant here we should keep an eye on?
A: Coaches like to bring in players who are familiar with their schemes, so it wasn’t a surprising move. I’d have to say the odds are against Foreman making the 53, but he could stick on the practice squad. Then again, other than Mike Davis, who was signed as a free agent, and returner/back Corrdarrelle Patterson, the team is weak at running back (they released Javian Hawkins last week) — so it’s possible. Foreman was cut by the Falcons, was re-signed to their practice squad, and was then cut again. He is now a free agent. — Jeff Schultz, @JeffSchultzATL
Baltimore Ravens
Q: Gus Edwards has historically done a lot when he gets more than 15 carries — he has several 100-yard games and rarely disappoints with volume. Is this his chance to grab that 15-carry threshold and become a star, or is the offense not built for that?
A: I’m not ready to say that Edwards has star potential. I just don’t know that he’s dynamic enough to say that or will be enough of a factor in the passing game. Plus, offensive coordinator Greg Roman prefers a committee approach. But in the Ravens’ run schemes and with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, there’s no reason to think he can’t be a legitimate No. 1-caliber back who puts up good numbers. — Jeff Zrebiec, @jeffzrebiec
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Buffalo Bills
Q: The Buffalo backfield is always a quagmire for fantasy players. Can you help sort it out for us?
A: Unfortunately, it’s probably going to be a lot more of the same frustration in fantasy circles. Devin Singletary was a consideration for the Bills’ fantasy sleeper, considering his consensus ADP is over 20 picks worse than Zack Moss for a likely similar role in usage. Singletary looks improved from last season, changed his body composition and is a tad more explosive, even though he still isn’t the quickest running back. He’s also the better pass protecting option of the two and can make more people miss in the open field as a pass catcher. Singletary seems a bit more appealing just based on cost right now, though, in his third year, some uneven weeks make him more likely than Moss to become a game-day inactive over time.
Moss is powerful and showed well in the preseason, but questions about his vision will remain until he can put games together consistently. Moss is the goal-line back by title, but so is quarterback Josh Allen, and the Bills also love to spread out a defense and throw it close to the goal line as well. It’s important to note that running backs coach Kelly Skipper controlled the position’s usage in the past, and he has mostly gone with the hot hand approach. There hasn’t been any indication this summer that it will change, either. — Joe Buscaglia, @JoeBuscaglia
Carolina Panthers
Q: Are you getting the impression, through your daily featured check-ins, that Sam Darnold is actually a good quarterback and worthy of a fantasy draft pick?
A: To be determined. The Panthers have placed a huge emphasis on Darnold taking better care of the ball than he did in New York, and for the most part, he did that during camp. There weren’t a lot of splash plays during the practices at Wofford College, but Matt Rhule has said he wants Darnold to let it rip on occasion, as well. In Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore and rookie Terrace Marshall Jr., the Panthers have three guys who can get behind the defense. But we can’t go through a fantasy football exercise on the Panthers without mentioning Christian McCaffrey, who is going to be Darnold’s new best friend in Charlotte when the pocket breaks down or his receivers are covered. — Joseph Person, @josephperson
Chicago Bears
Q: You’re likely sick of Justin Fields questions, so here’s a Tarik Cohen one: What can we expect from him in terms of involvement in the offense?
A: Cohen remains on the physically-unable-to-perform list and there hasn’t been any indication of when he can be expected back. Matt Nagy slipped a bit when saying Cohen’s timetable was more “weeks” than “days,” later regretting putting a timeline on it. After missing this much time, it’s hard to expect big things from Cohen upon his return, but keep an eye on Damien Williams. He’ll be the No. 2 back until Cohen returns, has familiarity with the offense and could put up decent production as long as he’s David Montgomery’s immediate backup. — Kevin Fishbain, @kFishbain
Cleveland Browns
Q: Is there any chance at all that Odell Beckham, Jr. can get to 1,200 yards and maybe six or seven TDs?
A: Absolutely, there’s a chance. Beckham still looks fast and has plenty to play for as none of the remaining $31 million on his contract after this season is guaranteed. He’s never fully clicked with Baker Mayfield, but Beckham was pretty good last season before he got injured and he brings a big-play element that can help the Browns. It’s hard to imagine Beckham getting more than 20 snaps a game in September, but if he gets back to full speed and the Browns start playing 42-41 games again, he’s going to get his chances. — Zac Jackson, @AkronJackson
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Cincinnati Bengals
Q: Should we be worried about Ja’Marr Chase’s preseason drops?
A: Maybe? Hard to tell because it’s still early. The drops and slow acclimation for Chase might lower expectations for the early part of the season, but at some point this year, Chase will start to find comfort and begin making plays. There are too many things about his skill set to think he won’t have a solid rookie season. It’s just a matter of how long it takes him to reach full throttle. (Note: Paul wrote a great column on this a couple of weeks ago.) — Paul Dehner, @PaulDehnerJr
Dallas Cowboys
Q: How big of a year do you think Ezekiel Elliott can have?
A: It depends on how well the team is playing, his health, the health of the offensive line and how well he takes care of the ball. Those all weren’t great last year. Oh, and he didn’t have Dak Prescott. Elliott had a fumbling issue last season that he’s been working to correct, most notably switching the ball to his left hand at times after almost always carrying it in his right the past five seasons. Many within the organization have noted how Elliott, 26, is in the best shape they’ve seen him during his NFL career. As long as he stays healthy, Elliott’s getting a significant number of touches and should be back among the league’s leading rushers. — Jon Machota, @JonMachota
Denver Broncos
Q: Is Melvin Gordon quietly going to have another big year? It seems like Pat Shurmur liked him a lot more last year than people remember.
A: Gordon started to find his way during the second half of last season following a slow start. He was the NFL’s seventh-leading rusher over the final eight games (611 yards), averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and he nearly eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark (986) for the second time in his career. But I’d be hesitant to view Gordon as a top-eight running back in 2021 for a number of reasons. The first is the arrival of rookie Javonte Williams, the 35th overall pick out of North Carolina, who has looked every bit the part of a dynamic back during training camp. Williams may not start right away, but he is going to be a major part of the offense from the outset. (Note: Nick predicted Broncos rushing and receiving leaders here.) Given his presence, it’s hard to imagine Gordon occupying 49 percent of Denver’s overall team carries like he did in 2020. Second, Gordon has dealt with a nagging groin injury during camp. Though the injury isn’t serious, it’s a reminder that Gordon, who has played more than 14 games only twice in his six seasons, is nearing an advanced age for a running back (28) and that makes injuries a concern. — Nick Kosmider, @NickKosmider
Detroit Lions
Q: How big of a year can Amon-Ra St. Brown have?
A: The ceiling for St. Brown would keep him in the Offensive Rookie of the Year debate for a long while. The Lions are going to give him looks in all situations, and they figure to be trailing quite a bit. St. Brown was one of the best route runners (if not the best) among all Lions receivers from the day he set foot on the practice field. Because of that, OC Anthony Lynn has not hesitated to use him from the slot, on the edge or in motion across the backfield. When Lynn wants to be creative with his attack, he’ll make sure St. Brown is involved. It’s not out of the question that the rookie climbs up over 50 catches in 2021. — Chris Burke, @ChrisBurkeNFL
Green Bay Packers
Q: Is this Randall Cobb return going to mean big things for him?
A: Probably not, if I’m being honest. He’ll certainly have a role in the offense, but I don’t foresee it being a huge one. Maybe the Packers are just hiding the 31-year-old in camp to unleash him on the unsuspecting Saints in Week 1, but rookie Amari Rodgers has been used more this preseason on gadget stuff out of the backfield. Cobb will be reliable out of the slot, but there are three wide receivers (Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard), a tight end (Robert Tonyan) and a running back (Aaron Jones) who will probably factor more in the passing game than Cobb. — Matt Schneidman, @MattSchneidman
Houston Texans
Q: We know very little about David Culley and Tim Kelly’s tendencies. Do you have any idea if this offense will be pass heavy, run heavy, etc.?
A: Last year was Tim Kelly’s first calling plays, and the Texans had one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the league based on their tendencies on early downs in neutral situations. But don’t expect that to continue with Tyrod Taylor now replacing Deshaun Watson at QB. Though both QBs are mobile, the Texans will likely be more willing to utilize Taylor in the running game than they were Watson, who could carve defenses up with his arm. Taylor isn’t the same threat through the air. Kelly has said he intends to run the ball more to help a running game that ranked last in DVOA last season.
The renewed emphasis on the running game and the drop-off in quarterback play might hurt receiver Brandin Cooks, who is coming off one of the better seasons of his career. But on the other hand, the Texans will once again likely be trailing a lot, meaning they’ll be pressed to pass. And with Will Fuller and Randall Cobb now gone, Cooks will have less talented receivers around him, which could result in him taking on a larger target share. — Aaron Reiss, @AaronJReiss
Indianapolis Colts
Q: Should people drafting Jonathan Taylor worry about Marlon Mack?
A: Maybe not only Marlon Mack, but also Nyheim Hines. Taylor has been nothing short of the Colts’ most impressive player on offense throughout training camp, and we know Frank Reich plans on giving him the lion’s share of carries. “He’s earned the right to be our main guy,” Reich has said. But the Colts also love to share the ball, which should scare fantasy managers just a bit. Mack and Hines — not to mention fourth-stringer Jordan Wilkins — will see touches. — Zak Keefer, @zkeefer
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Q: Urban Meyer has a history of using players in that slash position. And Tavon Austin is still on the team (although currently dealing with a quad injury). Could he have an out-of-nowhere big year in this offense, especially with Travis Etienne hurt? UPDATE: Austin is on short-term IR and will miss at least the first three weeks.
A: Austin didn’t seem like a completely safe bet to make the team until Etienne’s injury, but his history suggests he could fit into that role. (I guarantee Meyer remembers when West Virginia played Austin at tailback against Oklahoma and he ran for 344 yards.) Meyer is desperate to add some explosive play possibilities, and he really wanted Etienne to be the guy who could be a home run threat in either the run or pass game out of the backfield. Austin may have to suffice now. — Andy Staples, @Andy_Staples
Kansas City Chiefs
Q: How much more involved can Mecole Hardman get in this offense in 2021?
A: Last season, former receiver Sammy Watkins was targeted 55 times while playing in 10 games. Hardman, who recorded 41 receptions for 560 yards and four touchdowns, should get the majority of those targets that Watkins received. Hardman could finish this season with close to 90 targets if he stays healthy. Reid will also continue to use Hardman on jet sweeps and end-around plays because of his breakaway speed on the perimeter. The Chiefs expect Hardman to be the third passing weapon behind Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. — Nate Taylor, @ByNateTaylor
Las Vegas Raiders
Q: Can you give us an idea of how the RB situation will shake out?
A: It’s not a situation where Kenyan Drake is a co-starter, but there’s potential for him to finish the season with a couple hundred touches between his rushing attempts and catches. His fantasy production will be more about efficiency and scoring ability than volume as Jacobs is clearly still the star of the show. That means Drake could have a few unimpressive weeks mixed in with some big hitters throughout the season. He’s someone who should be a flex target rather than someone considered to be a starting back. — Tashan Reed, @TashanReed
Los Angeles Chargers
Q: Is it possible Mike Williams takes the next step?
A: This is always the question facing Williams, and a lot of it will come down to whether he can stay healthy. He battled a knee injury all year in 2019. Last year, he suffered an AC joint sprain in training camp and later had a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Chargers’ Week 4 loss to the Bucs. He has missed the last couple weeks of practice with a hip-flexor issue, but that does not seem serious. If he can stay on the field, Williams will have a sizable role in this offense as the X receiver, the same position Michael Thomas plays in the Saints system. Herbert has said repeatedly that he wants to get Williams more targets, particularly in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Williams is in a contract year. He needs to take a big jump to set himself up for a payday this coming offseason. It is possible as long as he can avoid injury. — Daniel Popper, @danielrpopper
Los Angeles Rams
Q: Do you have any indication of which pass catchers will benefit from having Matthew Stafford at QB instead of Jared Goff?
A: Honestly, I think all of them will benefit. The Rams are going to spread Sean McVay’s offense out a little more and throw the ball downfield often. One of McVay’s favorite qualities in Stafford is how he “activates all five eligibles” — so we can expect good ball distribution as well, and I believe that also includes tight ends and, yes, running backs. Adding Sony Michel to the run game will help open up more opportunities for Darrell Henderson in the passing game. — Jourdan Rodrigue, @jourdanrodrigue
Miami Dolphins
Q: Can you give us a prediction on Myles Gaskin’s numbers for 2021?
A: It’s not like he had a crazy workload last year. Gaskin carried just 142 times, which ranked 30th league-wide. Let’s say he sees a bump of around three touches per game. It doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibilities to think that Gaskin could rush for 750 yards and add 450 more as a receiver. How about 1,200 total yards and seven touchdowns? — Sheil Kapadia, @SheilKapadia
Minnesota Vikings
Q: How does the injury to Irv Smith affect the Vikings targets? Is there another tight end who will become a viable fantasy player as a result? UPDATE: The Vikings traded for Chris Herndon after Chad answered this question.
A: With Smith out, the Vikings have a new No. 1 tight end in Tyler Conklin. The 26-year-old was the team’s third-string tight end a year ago, but his emergence in the final month of last season with Kyle Rudolph out gave the team confidence to cut Rudolph and elevate Conklin to the No. 2 role. In the final four games last season, Conklin saw 21 targets and caught 15 of those passes for 168 yards and one touchdown. That kind of pace would give Conklin 714 receiving yards in a 17 game season. With the offense the Vikings run, Conklin will be on the field almost every offensive play as long as Smith is out. That sets him up to quietly field plenty of targets and potentially become a useful fantasy tight end. — Chad Graff, @ChadGraff
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New England Patriots
Q: Will we see a different Cam Newton (healthy, more familiar with the offense) in 2021? UPDATE: As if you didn’t know
A: Probably, but it’s no sure thing. Strictly comparing Newton’s two training camps with the Patriots, his completion percentage and accuracy rate is down this summer, while his interceptions are up. He created some momentum during the team’s week in Philly, but that was abruptly halted due to COVID-19 protocols. Still, if Newton starts all 17 games, the expectation is he should definitely exceed eight touchdown passes thanks to an improved supporting cast. But will he also have 12 rushing touchdowns once again? It’s a tricky balance. — Jeff Howe, @jeffphowe
New Orleans Saints
Q: Any advice you’d like to offer a fantasy player on your QBs?
A: For extremely deep or two quarterback leagues, Taysom Hill probably won’t be a typical backup, as he has always had some sort of role in the offense as a receiving threat or to run the read option, so don’t write him off entirely. As for Winston, the focus might usually be on his turnover numbers, but he provides a big opportunity to put up yards and touchdowns based on his past performances. — Katherine Terrell, @Kat_Terrell
New York Giants
Q: Is Evan Engram going to see 100-plus targets again in 2021?
A: Engram has topped 100 targets twice in his four-year career. Not coincidentally, he played in all but one game in those two seasons. So health is the first hurdle to reaching 100 targets. But the influx of other receiving options — Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Kyle Rudolph, a healthy Saquon Barkley — should take a bite out of Engram’s usage — and that was before he was dinged up in the final preseason game. I’m taking the under on 100 targets. — Dan Duggan, @DDuggan21
New York Jets
Q: Is the Michael Carter hype train going a little too fast?
A: The Jets like Carter a lot, and he’s undeniably the team’s most elusive back, but this is going to be a running back by committee. Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman will see as many reps as he. Carter isn’t the bellcow of the backfield. — Connor Hughes, @ConnorJHughes
Philadelphia Eagles
Q: Is there any hope for Travis Fulgham to recapture some of that mid-season magic? UPDATE: Travis Fulgham was cut and re-signed to the practice squad.
A: There’s always hope, but Fulgham has fallen a long way since then. He opened training camp as one of the three starting wide receivers in 11 personnel but has since been overtaken by Quez Watkins. It’s not even a guarantee he’ll make the Week 1 roster, though the Eagles will likely keep him around because his proven upside is higher than any of the alternatives. But you probably have better options than Fulgham. — Bo Wulf, @Bo_Wulf
Pittsburgh Steelers
Q: How high is too high to take Najee Harris in drafts? (he’s currently 16th off the board)
A: That sounds about right. Harris is a star and you saw that from the first day of rookie minicamp. He is going to be a significant part of the passing game as well, including around the end zone. The only questions there are the suspect offensive line that has five new starters in the five positions from last year and the potential of losing a snap or two in the red zone, although that is still being worked out. The line is the catalyst here. If they give him any semblance of blocking, then Harris is easily a top-10 back. — Mark Kaboly, @MarkKaboly
San Francisco 49ers
Q: On a scale of 1-10, how settled is the RB situation (in other words, will we see 1,000 yards from Raheem Mostert or 1,000 from Trey Sermon)?
A: The order is fairly settled — I’d say it’s an 8 — with Mostert entering first, Sermon second and, at least to begin the season, probably Wayne Gallman third (UPDATE: Wayne Gallman was cut and is now on the Falcons). But running backs coach Bobby Turner will tinker with the snap counts based on feel and in-game productivity. Mostert is the home-run hitter who’s capable of huge fantasy numbers on any given week. But given his injury history, he’s high risk, high reward. If he’s out of action, the others — including Jeff Wilson when he comes off of PUP — will be steady in an offense that will consistently run the ball. But they are unlikely to have Mostert’s spectacular numbers. — Matt Barrows, @mattbarrows
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Seattle Seahawks
Q: Is this the year Rashaad Penny fulfills his potential?
A: Probably not, no. Penny was a first-round pick, and with running backs the standard there in order to live up to your potential is really high. Sony Michel, a first-round pick in that same draft, just got shipped out of town because he didn’t live up to his draft status. With Carson as the bellcow, it’s hard to imagine Penny gets enough carries on a consistent basis to showcase his skills. — Michael-Shawn Dugar, @MikeDugar
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Q: Do we have any idea how the backfield is going to shake out?
A: Yes, and it’s not good news for fantasy prospectors. It’s a three-headed monster, with Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette splitting series as the primary ball carriers and Giovani Bernard stepping in for both as the third-down and pass-catching back. So there’s less PPR incentives for the first two and probably not enough actual touches to make Bernard a tempting flex sleeper. If one out of Jones or Fournette got injured, the other isn’t a bad spot start. — Greg Auman, @GregAuman
Tennessee Titans
Q: How will this offense change without Arthur Smith?
A: Like Smith before him, Todd Downing was promoted from tight ends coach to OC, and he worked closely with Smith — specifically getting credit for some of the success in the red zone. The offense looks like it will be exactly the same modern/Shanahan-ey/McVay-ish West Coast attack, with Henry running outside zone as the foundation and play action as a lethal component. The big change is Julio Jones, and maybe that tempts Downing to do some different things. If he does his job well, it should mean long Sundays for a lot of defensive coordinators. — Joe Rexrode, @JoeRexrode
Washington Football Team
Q: How legit is that Antonio Gibson/Christian McCaffrey comparison?
A: There’s some credence to it, but Gibson isn’t the pure runner that McCaffrey is, nor has he shown the same ability to be as big a pass-catching threat as the Panther. It doesn’t mean he can’t develop into it, as he’s spent most of training camp and the spring working on being more involved in the passing game and developing his vision as a runner. It’s something he’ll keep chipping away at in addition to being more consistent picking the right running lane. He was starting to heat up last year before his turf-toe injury derailed his progress, but don’t forget that hat-trick performance he had against the Cowboys in prime time on Thanksgiving, when he rushed for over 100 yards and scored three touchdowns. The spring and summer work he’s received this year, after a truncated offseason in 2020, has been beneficial in his pursuit of becoming a more complete, three-down running back. — Rhiannon Walker, @InstantRHIplay
(Top photo: Chris Keane/Getty Images)
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